The Venezuelan Crisis: A Possibility for Maduro

Image: Venezuelan President Maduro and Russian President Putin

Author:Anna Maloney

Historical Background

The Venezuelan Crisis is a multifaceted problem, which analysts trace to the Presidency of Hugo Chávez, and has stemmed most recently from the Venezuelan Presidential Crisis, after the widely contested last election in May 2018. Candidates Nicolás Maduro and Juan Guaidó both claimed victory, with Maduro being sworn in as President and Guaidó as acting president. The support for either side has, in the following years, remained based on geopolitical lines. Maduro was supported by Russia, Cuba, China, Iran, Syria, and Turkey, alongside a dozen other countries; Guaidó was supported by the United States, Canada, and most Western and Latin American countries. In early 2021, the European Union withdrew its support for Guaidó, though it still refused to acknowledge Maduro as the legitimate president and continued threatening further sanctions. The crisis in Venezuela involves ongoing socio economic issues such as hyperinflation, starvation, disease, rising crime and mortality rates and a mass exodus from the country. A census in 2021 found that nearly 20% of Venezuelans have left their country due to the crisis. A UN report from 2019 estimated that 94% of Venezuelans live in poverty.

Currently

As the War in Ukraine intensified over the last few days, oil prices skyrocketed around the world. Russia is one of the greatest producers of oil and natural gas around the world and many of the pipelines for export pass through Ukraine. The outbreak of the war, alongside increased sanctions leveled by the United States and the EU in attempts to dissuade further Russian warfare, may lead to an unexpected opportunity for Venezuela- which possesses the largest oil reserves in the world. As Maduro has remained in power as the Venezuelan president, his administration has continued to strengthen its ties with Russia. The nation released a statement supporting Russian action in Ukraine, arguing that the U.S. had violated the Minsk agreements.

Possibilities

Though members of Maduro’s and Guaidó’s administrations have debated methods of ending the Venezuelan Presidential Crisis, and in turn the greater Venezuelan Crisis- such as holding a new election excluding both candidates- no true progress has been made since Maduro was sworn into office in early 2019. A diplomatic breakthrough in late 2021 came about when Maduro offered to reopen negotiations, in return for the lifting of international sanctions against Venezuela. However, if the Russian invasion of Ukraine continues, the negotiations are increasingly unlikely to occur. An increasing demand for oil and instability in it’s supply would give Maduro greater global power, enabling him to avoid negotiations which would threaten his presidency. The longstanding close relations between Russia and Venezuela would also serve to increase the tensions between the western world and Maduro’s administration. If the invasion of Ukraine remains unchecked by greater economic and military force from outside and western forces, it will weaken those that have historically opposed totalitarianism in the eyes of the global community (including the United States), and inevitably allow Maduro to prolong his control in Venezuela.