What to Know About the Myanmar Situation
Author: Alexandra Maloney
Introduction
Global headlines recently have been dominated by mentions of Myanmar, the Junta, and the current pro-democracy insurgency developing in the country. This has led many individuals to wonder,
What exactly is Myanmar? Where is it? What on earth is going on? If this sounds like you- worry not, because here is everything you need to know about the Myanmar situation.
Image of people on a barricade at protest against the military coup, in Yangon, Myanmar [Reuters]
History
Myanmar, or Burma as it is also known as, has had a long and complicated history with military dictatorships. After achieving independence in 1947, the country became a socialist democracy dominated by Communist parties and politicians, however there were numerous ethnic and political conflicts which required the new nation to rely heavily on its military. In 1958, with increasing social turmoil, and a severely degraded economy, the military leader Ne Win (and the military) was asked to take over responsibilities as a temporary caretaker government. Public support was strengthened after the army facilitated the 1960 elections and then acknowledged the authority of the newly elected civilian government (AFPFL). At the time the general public continued to perceive the elected government as inept, corrupt, and ultimately unable to restore peace and security in Burmese society due to drastically increasing crime rates. At the same time, the military's popularity increased, as it was seen as a decisive and stabilizing force.
In 1962, Ne Win organized a military coup d’état, and seized power, declaring a social state run by a council of senior military officers. The publicized reason for the coup was the military's fear that two of the larger ethnic minorities, the Shan and Kayah would withdraw from the Union (which was allowed under the 1947 constitution), they believed that this would greatly weaken Myanmar, using the instability in Vietnam and Laos as justifications. In fact, Shan leaders had been openly advocating for “national determination”, and had even begun to form armed opposition. In line with increasing autonomy in the outer regions, the army feared that the ethnically different regions would foster hopes of independence and attract the attention of foreign powers, in particular, the United States. The army also believed that the parliamentary government and federal system encouraged local autonomy and was inherently weak, while they believed that the representation of ethnic minorities in parliament was seen as enhancing ethnic disparities. Additionally, the military stated that the political system of a multi-party democracy only helped the wealthy, as there were politicians representing capitalists and landlords. This claim would prove to be exceptionally laudable given the Junta’s current domination of the Burmese economy, as well as most public sector businesses.
From that point onwards, Myanmar has been led directly, or indirectly by the military. Until 1988, Myanmar was ruled as a one party system, with General Nu Win and his fellow officers and almost all aspects of society were nationalized and controlled by the “government”. During this time period Myanmar became one of the most impoverished countries in the world, with sporadic protests against the military rule, almost all of which were violently and quickly quashed. However in 1988 widespread pro-democracy demonstrations broke out across the country, which were primarily caused by economic mismanagement and the government's political oppression. Then General Saw Maung staged a coup d’état and officially formed the State Law and Order Restoration Council, in 1989 it declared martial law after increased protests, the new military government finalized plans for the People Assembly elections, and renamed the country the “Union of Myanmar”. In 1990, the military government held the first free multiparty elections in roughly 30 years, and the NDL (the party of Aung San Suu Kyi) won 80% of the seats. General Saw Maung had publicly stated that he would step down from power and “return the military to the barracks”, however he was essentially forced to resign and General Than Shwe took control of the Chairmanship of the SLORC (later SPDC). The military then refused to cede power and continued to remain in power.
In 1993 the military government published a “Roadmap to Discipline-flourishing Democracy” however the process did not appear to play itself out until 2008 when a new constitution was adopted. The new constitution ensured elections for a national assembly with the given rights to appoint a president, while at the same time strengthening army controls at each level of the government. In 2010, the first general election in 20 years was held, however it was boycotted by the NLD. The military backed parties declared victory and a retired general was appointed as President. Following this, there were a series of political and economic reforms which released the pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi from house arrest, established the National Human Rights Commission, established new labor laws, permitted labor unions and strikes and much more.
In the 2012 by-elections, the NLD party won 43 out of the 45 seats. In the 2015 general elections the NLD won a supermajority in both chambers of the national parliament, but AUng San Suu Kyi was constitutionally barred from taking the Presidency. In 2016 Htin Kyaw was elected as the first non military president following the military coup in 2962 and Aung San Suu Kyi became the State Counselor (similar to prime minister). During this period of sharp liberalization, it was difficult to tell whether the military was allowing the transformation to a liberal democracy or creating a farce in order to further institutionalize itself into the Burmese economy and political scene.
In the 2020 parliamentary elections, the NLD party once again won a supermajority in both houses (396/476 seats), while the military party (the USDP) only won 33 seats. As the election results were announced, the USDP claimed that the results were fraudulent and called for a new election with military observers. Additionally, over 90 smaller parties contested the vote as well, but the election observers contested that there were no large scale irregularities in the vote. The military then threatened to “take action”.
On the day that the new parliament was set to convene, the Tatmadaw detained Aung San Suu Kyi and many other prominent members of the NLD party. They then declared a state of emergency (for one year), appointed the military chief Min Aung Hlaing as prime minister and tightened their grip over the country, closing borders, restricting travel, and electronic communication across the country. It was announced that the military would create a new election commission and hold new elections within a year, however officials avoided making official, specific commitments to elections. Win Myint and Aung San Suu Kyi were then placed under house arrest and the military filed numerous charges against them. The NLD party Members of Parliament were then expelled from Naypyitaw (the capitol). On march 15th alone, the military killed 38 people in an orgy of repressive violence.
Recent Political developments
Myanmar was recently ranked the 2nd least democratic nation in the world, coming just after Afghanistan, and just before North Korea. Since the start of the 2021 Coup, numerous conflicts have sprung up across the country with various political and ethnic groups taking up arms to fight for democracy. Additionally, millions of people have protested or peacefully resisted the Tatmadaw through peaceful protests, skirmishes, strikes, and the weaponization of silence and noise. However, the Tatmadaw has used violence, torture, and threats to suppress dissent, murdering and silencing thousands of pro-democracy activists and fighters. Due to the increasing suppressive violence, thousands of Burmese citizens have fled into neighboring countries, most notably Thailand.
Prior to the start of the Coup representatives of both Russia and China met with military higher ups, prompting many to question whether foreign collusion, and monetary support had occurred. Russia has also supplied the Tatmadaw with weapons, including a sophisticated surface to air missile system, drones, and radar equipment, all of which will be useful in the fight against democracy. While China cleverly employed its vaccine diplomacy and stressed the importance of the military's support for the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor.
