The Swedish Election: Too Close to Call

Current Swedish PM Magdalena Andersson debating opponent Ulf Kristersson during the election campaign (Fredrik Sandberg/TT News Agency via Reuters)

Author: May Johnson

Background

With an election so close that it could take days for the winner to be announced, the Swedish government may be altered by Wednesday. For the first time in eight years, the Social Democratic block in Sweden could flip. The coalition of four left-wing parties led by current prime minister Andersson narrowly led in early exit polls. Yet the right-wing Sweden Democrats block, who are led by Jimmie Akesson, would likely choose the less right-wing leader of the Moderate Party as their prime minister, have since appeared to surpass the Social Democratic Block with 94% of electoral districts counted. 

What is the Sweden Democrat Party?

The Sweden Democrat Party is known to support anti-immigration policies and was founded in the aftermath of a neo-Nazi movement in the late 1980s. When Moderate Party leader Ulf Kristersson, the theoretical contender for prime minister if the Sweden Democrat Party takes power, began working with the Sweden Democrats in 2019, it signaled a shift from the party’s long isolated stance. With the election campaign surrounded by an uptick in immigration issues and rising energy costs, as well as a rise in gang shootings, Swedish people that have long voted for the Social Democratic Party may be seeking a change.

How might this affect U.S. relations?

Whether the Social Democratic Party remains in power or the right wing coalition unseats it, Sweden’s positive relations with the U.S. and bid for NATO are likely to remain unchanged. As one of the six EU countries that is not a member of NATO, Sweden began a bid for membership in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. If a change in power occurs, however, it may be difficult for the moderate party and its loosely united right-wing coalition to continue being united. With the election results reported so close, Sweden may become further gridlocked by a weak majority no matter which party wins.